PHASE ONE BROUGHT RELIEF. PHASE TWO COULD BRING DISASTER.

The past few days in Israel have been turbulent. An agreement between Hamas and Israel was reached — initiated and orchestrated by U.S. President Donald Trump. The living hostages were released, along with several of the remaining bodies. Trump came to Israel for a historic visit, and now the country is waiting to see what happens next.

Just about ten days ago, everyone expected Prime Minister Netanyahu to return from the United States and announce the annexation of parts of Judea and Samaria. But Trump’s deal changed everything. We in Israel are deeply relieved that the war has ended and that all our living hostages are finally home. There will be no more suffering in the dungeons of Gaza. It feels as if a great weight has been lifted from the nation’s heart. All of Israel shared the pain of the hostages’ families, and we are united in gratitude to president Trump for their return. However, Hamas was not disarmed, and it is clear they have no intention of doing so willingly. Not all the objectives of the war were achieved.

WHAT IS TRUMP’S PLAN?

THE FIRST PHASE. In the first phase, most of the commitments were carried out. Israel withdrew to the agreed lines within 24 hours of cabinet approval, maintaining control over about 53% of the Gaza Strip, and the fighting ceased. Hamas was obligated to return all living and deceased hostages within 72 hours of the withdrawal.

The 72-hour deadline expired on Monday, October 13, at noon Israeli time. The living hostages were released just before the deadline, but the bodies were not. Only four of the twenty-eight were returned on Monday — and only after the deadline. On Tuesday, Hamas handed over four more bodies, but one of them turned out not to be an Israeli hostage at all, but an unidentified Gazan, dressed in an IDF uniform — clearly intended to deceive Israel. As of October 15, Hamas is still holding 21 deceased Israelis, in grave violation of the agreement.

It should be noted that the text of the agreement is somewhat vague regarding the return of bodies. It states that all remains of deceased hostages held by Hamas must be returned within 72 hours of the Israeli withdrawal, but also that if Hamas “does not know or cannot locate certain burial sites,” it must share whatever information it has and cooperate with mediators or monitors to locate the missing remains. The situation therefore remains unclear, but Israeli authorities and the hostages’ families view Hamas’s actions as a clear breach of the deal.

THE SECOND PHASE. According to multiple Israeli and regional media reports, preliminary talks on the second stage are already underway, and that negotiations have begun in Sharm el-Sheikh, focusing for now on technical and coordination issues. It is important to note that phase two has not yet been signed — for the moment, it remains only a plan.

The second phase envisions the full demilitarization of Gaza — dismantling Hamas’s tunnels, missile systems, and weapons — and the establishment of an interim technocratic Palestinian administration under international oversight. A proposed multinational stabilization force, including U.S. and Arab partners, would enforce security and oversee reconstruction.

But serious obstacles lie ahead. A senior Hamas official recently declared that the organization will not surrender its weapons, rejecting the proposed disarmament. Trump, for his part, has repeatedly insisted that Hamas will be disarmed, warning that if it refuses to do so voluntarily, “we will disarm them — and it will happen quickly and perhaps violently.”

There is a danger that even if Hamas formally agrees to disarm, it may do so only on paper while secretly keeping its weapons. These people have not changed — their goal remains the destruction of the State of Israel. The talk of peace is just that — talk. Before the war, and even now, there is no real partner for peace in Gaza. The small clans opposing Hamas are themselves violent groups with a history of murder and torture.

In Judea and Samaria, the situation is not much better. The Palestinian Authority hopes to take control of Gaza, and several Arab states support this idea — but the PA is hardly a moderate alternative. It does not kill Israelis directly but continues its infamous “pay for slay” policy, paying lifelong stipends to terrorists and their families. Israel has made clear that the PA will not be allowed to rule Gaza. Yet there are no other viable Palestinian alternatives: everyone is tied, formally or informally, to Hamas, Islamic Jihad, or the PA. There is no group of Palestinians — not even a small one — genuinely pursuing peace.

Another concern is the potential involvement of other Arab states in Gaza — Qatar, Turkey, and Egypt — none of which are particularly friendly to Israel. Small teams from these countries have already entered the Strip, allegedly to help locate the bodies of murdered Israelis.

Reconstruction, too, may become a double-edged sword: rebuilding what Israel destroyed could simply allow the terrorists to prepare for another October 7. Even worse, the so-called “Palestinian administration” envisioned in the plan could become a stepping stone toward an independent state — effectively creating a terrorist entity on Israel’s border, backed by the international community.

For these reasons, phase two presents a serious danger for Israel. Phase one was a clear victory — but phase two could turn into a major surrender. Israel must maneuver with extreme caution to avoid such a catastrophe.